GLP-1 Drugs Transform American Food Spending Habits

The increasing use of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs, such as Ozempic, is reshaping food purchasing patterns in the United States. A recent study conducted by researchers at Cornell University reveals that households using these weight-loss medications significantly reduce their grocery spending and alter their eating habits.

The research utilized transaction records from Numerator, a market research firm tracking grocery and restaurant purchases for approximately 150,000 US households. By matching these records with surveys regarding household members’ use of GLP-1 medications, the researchers assessed changes in food spending before and after medication began. The findings highlighted a notable shift: within six months of commencing GLP-1 treatment, households reduced their grocery spending by an average of 5.3%, with higher-income families spending 8% less.

The impact extends beyond grocery stores, as fast-food restaurants and specialty eateries also experienced an approximate 8% decline in sales. “The data show clear changes in food spending following adoption,” stated Sylvia Hristakeva from the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business. “After discontinuation, the effects become smaller and harder to distinguish from pre-adoption spending patterns.”

Changes in food purchasing habits were evident. Ultra-processed and calorie-dense foods saw the most significant declines, with sales of sweets and savory snacks down around 10%. Interestingly, staples such as eggs and meat also experienced reduced sales. Conversely, products like yogurt, fresh fruit, nutritional bars, and meat-based snacks gained popularity.

Hristakeva noted, “The main pattern is a reduction in overall food purchases. Only a small number of categories show increases, and those increases are modest relative to the overall decline.” The study also highlighted a rise in GLP-1 usage, with the proportion of US households containing at least one member on such medication increasing from 11% in late 2023 to more than 16% by mid-2024. Furthermore, about one-third of those surveyed discontinued their medication during the study, returning to previous shopping habits characterized by less healthy food choices.

This shift in demand is anticipated to have lasting effects. Researchers project that by 2035, approximately 24 million Americans will be using GLP-1 medications. As a result, food manufacturers are already strategizing on how to adapt to these changes. “These medications are both a risk and opportunity for the food industry,” remarked Justin Shimek, CEO of food innovation firm Mattson, which collaborates with major brands like PepsiCo and Starbucks. “Clearly, we believe this is going to be a time of disruption.”

Data from a Mattson study indicates that GLP-1 users consume 66% less soda and alcohol, and 93% report eating smaller meals. More than 60% say they think about food less often. In response, food giant Conagra Brands has begun labeling its Healthy Choice products as “GLP-1 Friendly,” despite no changes to the formulations of its frozen meals.

Researchers anticipate that as the GLP-1 market expands, companies will likely adjust packaging sizes, formulations, and marketing strategies to cater to this demographic. “At current adoption rates, even relatively modest changes at the household level can have meaningful aggregate effects,” Hristakeva emphasized. “Understanding these demand shifts is therefore important for assessing food markets and consumer spending.”

While the study did not definitively conclude that GLP-1 drugs were the sole cause of decreased food spending, the correlation between appetite suppression and changes in shopping habits suggests a significant influence. Analysts at Morgan Stanley remain optimistic about the restaurant and specialty outlet sectors, predicting that these businesses will adapt to shifting consumer preferences. “Many chains will evolve over time to respond to consumer tastes,” said Brian Harbour, who leads coverage of US restaurants and food distributors at Morgan Stanley. “Restaurants are never just about the food; they sell convenience or an experience.”

The study was published in the Journal of Marketing Research, marking a significant contribution to understanding the interplay between medication use and consumer behavior in the food industry.