Gunnar Henderson Aims for Comeback After Strong Yet Subpar Season

Gunnar Henderson, the 24-year-old shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles, experienced a noticeable decline in performance during the 2025 season. After being a candidate for the Most Valuable Player Award in 2024, Henderson’s statistics reflected a step back, hitting .274 with 17 home runs and an on-base plus slugging (OPS) of .787 over 154 games. Despite the dip in power – down from 37 home runs the previous year – he demonstrated improvements in his defensive play and achieved career highs in stolen bases (30) and doubles (34).

Reflecting on his season, Henderson remarked, “I’ve been working tirelessly for, it seems like, the whole year, to try to get my swing to where I want it to be. But yeah, it just hadn’t really ended up like I wanted it to.” As the Orioles concluded their home games in late September, he expressed a desire to take a break from the sport to recharge and prepare for the upcoming season.

Historical Context of Performance Regression

Henderson’s 2024 season was exceptional, contributing an impressive 9.1 wins above replacement (WAR), a figure that places him among the elite, as he became one of only ten players since World War II to achieve such a high WAR by their age-23 season. In contrast, his 2025 WAR dropped to 5.4, reflecting a decline of over 40%. Historical data suggests that players who experience breakout seasons often face similar regression in the subsequent year. Notably, only two players, Mike Trout in 2013 and Mickey Mantle in 1956, improved their WAR figures the following season. The average decline among the other seven players was approximately 31.7%.

Even Orioles legend Cal Ripken Jr. faced a similar challenge, seeing his WAR nearly halved from 10.0 in 1984 to 5.6 the following year. Nevertheless, most of these players rebounded strongly, achieving Hall of Fame status. Modern stars like Trout, Bryce Harper, and Mookie Betts are almost certain to secure their spots in Cooperstown.

Future Prospects for Henderson and the Orioles

Despite the downturn, Henderson’s 2025 season was still commendable. He ranked 10th in the American League for WAR and was the most valuable position player on the Orioles, significantly outpacing teammates Ramón Laureano (3.0), Ryan O’Hearn (2.0), and Adley Rutschman (1.9). His performance remains a bright spot for a team that ended the season with a disappointing 75-87 record, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2022.

Looking ahead, Henderson will focus on addressing his power output. Throughout the season, he experimented with various adjustments, including testing a torpedo bat in September before reverting to his usual equipment. He acknowledged the pressure he felt to perform, which led to him swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. “I know what I need to do,” Henderson stated. “It’s just hard to do throughout the year… I really haven’t been able to get it squared away.”

Interim manager Tony Mansolino expressed confidence in Henderson’s ability to make the necessary adjustments. “If anybody is going to figure it out and make the adjustment, it’s going to be Gunn,” he said in mid-September. “He is not happy that he’s not having a typical Gunnar year, and I got a lot of faith in the guy that he’s going to figure it out going forward.”

As Henderson and the Orioles prepare for the next season, the potential for a turnaround remains strong. The combination of his talent and historical trends in player performance offers optimism for the future, both for Henderson and the team as a whole.