Global Psoriasis Rates Set to Rise Significantly by 2050

A new global analysis indicates that the incidence of psoriasis, a chronic inflammatory skin condition, is projected to increase significantly by the year 2050. This rise will impact diverse patient groups across various age cohorts, sexes, and geographic regions. The study, led by Linli Liu, MD, from the Department of Dermatology at Suining Central Hospital in China, utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to forecast the future burden of psoriasis worldwide.

The research highlights the increasing prevalence of psoriasis, a condition that poses substantial challenges to global health. Liu and colleagues emphasize the importance of understanding demographic variations in the disease, noting that this information is critical for shaping public health strategies, enhancing healthcare access, and facilitating early diagnosis globally.

Methodology and Findings

The investigative team examined psoriasis data from 236 countries, covering the years from 1990 to 2021. They assessed rates of disease prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) categorized by sex, age, and geographic location. Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the researchers projected age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), incorporating a 95% prediction interval to ensure statistical accuracy.

In their analysis, Liu and colleagues identified a moderate rise in psoriasis incidence globally between 1990 and 2021. Specifically, the ASIR for male patients increased from 56.89 to 62.77 cases per 100,000, reflecting a 10.3% increase. For female patients, the ASIR rose from 57.08 to 61.26 cases per 100,000, representing a 7.3% increase. Based on this trajectory, the analysis suggests that by 2050, approximately 70 per 100,000 men and 66 per 100,000 women may be affected by psoriasis.

The sensitivity analysis, which excluded data from 2021 to re-evaluate the model, indicated a flattening of ASIR projections for males while maintaining consistency for females. This fluctuation highlights the need for further investigation into the underlying causes of these sex-specific differences.

Geographic Disparities and Socioeconomic Factors

The study also addresses geographic disparities in psoriasis incidence. Regions such as East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa reported substantially lower disease estimates. Liu and colleagues suggested that these findings may result from limited data availability and potential underreporting. In contrast, Western Europe and North America exhibited the highest crude incidence and prevalence rates.

Incidence rates were found to be similar among boys and girls aged 5 to 19 years, but a significant increase in disease incidence among older male subjects was noted. The research established a strong positive correlation between ASIR and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) with a statistical significance of P < .001. This correlation suggests that higher-income regions are more affected by psoriasis, a trend that aligns with previous studies.

Overall, Liu and colleagues’ modeling underscores an increasing global burden of psoriasis from 1990 to 2021, and their forecasts indicate that this trend will continue through 2050. The findings emphasize the need for public health initiatives tailored to address the growing incidence of psoriasis, particularly in high-income areas where the burden is greatest.

This comprehensive analysis serves as a crucial foundation for understanding the future landscape of psoriasis and highlights the necessity for continued research into the disease’s varying impacts across different populations.