Mexico’s Peso Forecasted to Maintain Stability in 2026, Poll Reveals

Mexico’s peso is expected to trade within a long-established range against the U.S. dollar throughout 2026, according to a recent poll conducted by Reuters. The currency, which has fluctuated between 16.00 and 22.00 per U.S. dollar since July 2015, is projected to weaken slightly to 18.92 in the next twelve months, down from 18.27 observed on December 3, 2025.

Analysts surveyed from November 28 to December 3 noted that the peso has averaged a mid-value of 19.20 over the past decade. It only breached the upper limit of 22.00 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Economic Factors Influencing the Peso

The forecast reflects a balanced yet slightly negative outlook for the peso, according to Christian Admin de la Huerta Avila, an economist at Finamex. He cited signs of weaker economic activity and reduced remittance flows as contributing factors. Additionally, a potential divergence between the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the U.S. Federal Reserve could influence the peso’s trajectory.

While Banxico is anticipated to gradually ease its monetary policy, the Federal Reserve may pause its rate cuts after an expected reduction this month. This divergence could lead to increased speculation against the peso, particularly if interest rate differentials become less favorable for Mexico’s currency.

Among the foreign exchange strategists who participated in the poll, five indicated a weaker bias for the peso in their forecasts, while three projected a stronger outlook, and three remained neutral.

Comparative Analysis with Other Currencies

In comparison, Brazil’s real is also facing a weakening trend, expected to drop 3.1% to 5.50 per dollar within the same timeframe. Currently, the Brazilian currency trades at 5.33. Despite this forecast, the real has appreciated significantly year-to-date, showing a gain of 15.9%.

For 2025, the consensus estimate predicts the real will stabilize at 5.38, which would represent a 14.9% annual increase, marking its strongest performance since a 21.8% rise in 2016. The Mexican peso has similarly performed well, showing an increase of 13.9% this year, with expectations of a 12.5% annual appreciation, the highest since its 14.9% rise in 2023.

As the situation evolves, the forecasts highlight the complexities of currency trading and the various economic factors that can influence exchange rates. The peso’s stability within its long-standing range reflects both local economic conditions and broader international monetary policies.