Gaza Ceasefire Talks Face Major Hurdles Ahead of Phase Two

Talks regarding a ceasefire in Gaza are currently at a critical juncture as negotiations move towards a second phase. The body of the final Israeli hostage remains unrecovered, a significant challenge as the process unfolds. This situation is pivotal to President Donald Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan, which aims to restore stability in the region following a prolonged period of violence.

The negotiations for phase two are under substantial pressure, as international stakeholders seek to prevent a resurgence of the conflict that has plagued Gaza for years. Trump indicated that this next phase would begin “pretty soon,” although no specific timeline has been provided. According to Axios, the White House is aiming to announce details of the second phase before Christmas, which would include a new governance structure for Gaza.

Key Objectives of the Second Phase

Phase two of Trump’s plan includes the establishment of a new governing mechanism in Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas, and the introduction of an International Stabilization Force (ISF). This force would assume control from the Israel Defense Forces currently operating in parts of the Gaza Strip. During a panel discussion at the Doha Forum in Qatar, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani emphasized the urgency of the discussions, labeling the current moment as “critical.”

He stated that a complete ceasefire would require the full withdrawal of Israeli forces to ensure stability in Gaza, allowing for the free movement of people, which remains a significant issue. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty echoed the need for the ISF to be deployed “as soon as possible,” while Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide warned that the current ceasefire cannot endure indefinitely without further measures.

Since the ceasefire took effect on October 10, 2023, Israel has received the remains of 27 hostages, while 20 living hostages have been returned. The body of the last hostage, Ran Gvili, who was killed during Hamas’ attack on October 7, remains unrecovered despite extensive search efforts. Israeli authorities have released Palestinian prisoners as part of the exchange, but the situation remains tenuous.

Challenges Ahead for Negotiators

Israel has made it clear that all hostages must be returned before engaging in a second phase deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently highlighted the need for an “intensive and immediate effort” to fulfill this commitment. Although Israel agreed to suspend its offensive in Gaza, violence has persisted, with over 350 fatalities reported since the ceasefire began, raising the overall death toll in Gaza to beyond 70,000, according to figures from the Palestinian Health Ministry.

The first phase also included promises to expand humanitarian aid into Gaza, but U.N. experts report that the number of trucks entering Gaza has consistently fallen short of the target of 600 per day. While Israel announced plans to reopen the Rafah crossing to allow Palestinians access to Egypt, the crossing will not reopen in both directions until Gvili’s remains are returned.

As negotiations for phase two continue, analysts express concerns about the complex challenges that lie ahead. Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, noted that the prospect of disarming Hamas through military intervention is unlikely to garner support from any global power. He cautioned that while Trump’s peace plan aims for Hamas to disarm, the group has regained control of Gaza during the current ceasefire phase and shows no signs of relinquishing that control.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan added that discussions surrounding the ISF’s mandate and rules of engagement are ongoing, emphasizing the need to establish a separation between Israelis and Palestinians along the border. Despite these efforts, Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, expressed skepticism about the viability of the second phase, pointing out that no state has yet agreed to support the deployment of forces into Gaza.

The situation remains precarious, with Gerges arguing that the term “ceasefire” is misleading given the ongoing civilian casualties. He described the humanitarian situation as still catastrophic, despite some improvements since the ceasefire began. The international community continues to watch closely, hoping for progress while recognizing the significant challenges that lie ahead in achieving lasting peace in the region.