Unusual Daily Experiences Linked to Increased Migraine Risk

Research from Harvard Medical School indicates that unusual daily experiences, quantified through a measurement known as “trigger surprisal,” may significantly increase the risk of migraine attacks. The study reveals that higher surprisal scores, which reflect how atypical a day feels, correlate with heightened likelihood of headache occurrences within the following 12 to 24 hours.

Understanding the Study’s Findings

Published in JAMA Network Open, the study titled “Information-Theoretic Trigger Surprisal and Future Headache Activity” involved a cohort of 109 adults diagnosed with migraines according to the International Classification of Headache Disorders, 3rd Edition criteria. Participants, aged between 18 and 65, recorded their daily experiences through electronic diaries over a period of up to 28 days.

The research focused on how daily experiences can act as triggers for migraines. By assessing participants twice daily, mornings and evenings, the study gathered data on various factors, including sleep quality, mood, and environmental influences. Notably, headaches were reported on 1,518 of 5,145 diary days with complete data.

Results showed that when a person’s day deviated significantly from their normal routine, the risk of experiencing a migraine in the subsequent hours increased. Specifically, the odds of developing a headache rose by 86% within 12 hours and by 115% within 24 hours following a day of high surprisal. Conversely, if the previous day was already unusual, the additional risk from another atypical day was less pronounced.

Implications for Migraine Management

Understanding the concept of surprisal could enhance migraine self-management strategies. Rather than focusing solely on specific triggers, individuals might benefit from recognizing days that feel out of the ordinary. Researchers propose that integrating surprisal scores into mobile applications could facilitate real-time assessments of migraine risk.

Furthermore, the findings suggest that maintaining steadier daily routines and improving emotional regulation could mitigate the risk associated with surprising experiences. This approach may ultimately provide a broader strategy for managing migraines, moving beyond traditional trigger avoidance.

Despite the promising insights, the study faced limitations, including a smaller-than-expected sample size, reduced from an initial goal of 200 participants due to pandemic-related disruptions. This limitation hindered further subgroup analyses and excluded certain variables, such as medication use, which could influence outcomes.

The study’s findings contribute valuable information to the ongoing discourse on migraine management and emphasize the complexity of headache triggers. As researchers continue to explore the relationship between daily experiences and migraine occurrence, innovative self-management tools may emerge to assist individuals navigating this challenging condition.

For more detailed insights, refer to the full study by Dana P. Turner and colleagues in JAMA Network Open (2025). This research underscores the importance of understanding personal experiences in the context of migraine susceptibility, paving the way for enhanced self-management strategies.